【禁闻】学者分析中国GDP与盛世标准

【禁闻】学者分析中国GDP与盛世标准

【新唐人2011年9月15日讯】中共上周公布了国家统计局关于去年GDP的初步核实公
告，内容说：2010年国内生产总值现价总量，比初步�算数增加3219亿元，按不变价格
计算的增长速度为10.4%。在欧美经济普遍陷入低靡的情况下，似乎中国的经济一枝独
秀，不过有多位专家学者提出质疑，认为单靠GDP和经济发展无法量度一个国家是否已
经达到盛世。

《法国国际广播电台》9月12号发表《学者指中国GDP只及1949年难言盛世》的文章，引
用经济学家胡星斗的数据说，在康干时期，中国的GDP占世界的32%；到鸦片战争时
期，中国的GDP至少占世界的20%；到清朝末年，比率降到11%；到1949年时，比率再跌
到6%；文革时达到谷底的2%，现时的GDP只恢复占世界的5%、6%，所以即使从GDP看，也
并非取得很大成就。

虽然有学者对胡星斗的数据提出不同见解，但他提出，不应该单以GDP和经济来衡量中
国是否达到盛世，则受到普遍的赞同。

美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院谢田教授指出，GDP的概念是美国政府商业部设计
的，他们在设计当初就警告说，GDP的数字不应该做为一个国家经济健康度量，因为它
没有包括很多其他重要因素。

谢田教授："比方说你国防开支，自然资源，人口数量啊，其实都不是强国的标志。那
么它们都有弱点和局限。中共的统治集团用GDP的数字，你说是愚弄民众也好，做戏也
好，用来展示它的经济。实际上在中国这个（GDP）作用已经被夸大了。"

《新唐人》特约评论专家杰森表示，中国过去30年的GDP增长，是以其他因素恶化为代
价的。

杰森："中国GDP呢，在过去30年是在持续的发展，但是这个发展的结果呢，是社会严重
的贫富两极分化，是整个社会大的生存环境的持续恶化，包括自然环境；和社会道德人
伦的持续恶化。"

目前美国面临就业危机，奥巴马总统12号刚刚公布4470亿美元就业方案，试图帮助提振
美国经济；而欧元区也深陷债务危机，13号，巴西财政部长曼泰尼亚
（GuidoMantegna）表示，金砖国家将讨论援助欧盟国家的可能性。作为金砖四国之一
的中国，因此受到部分欧美学者的期待。

杰森分析，中国社会内部，其实并不像欧美国家表面上看到的那样乐观。由于制度问
题，中国社会发展的受益者是少数有权阶层，普通大众的生活并没有反映出如GDP速度
那样的增长。

杰森："一个典型的例子就是，最近物价稍微涨了一下，很多老百姓就已经开始吃不上
肉了，甚至稍微蔬菜涨一涨，连蔬菜都成问题了。所以就是说呢，单纯从GDP来看，它
只是能让国际上一些对中国不了解的人觉得中国兴旺发达。但是你要走入中国社会你会
发现，这是一个畸形发展的社会。"

杰森指出，目前中国的GDP仍然呈现增长，主要有两个原因。一是中共控制国家一
切；二是依靠镇压，严格保持中国拥有一个赤贫阶层，这样相对在国际上保持廉价劳动
力的优势，但这两点既制约了中国经济的发展，又积累了社会的不公，使得中国社会如
同坐在火山口一般。

在此之前，英国《金融时报》的文章提出：�看一个国家是否是盛世，只要看那个国家
所害怕的敌人或对手的特征。�

谢田教授："因为一个真正强大的国家呢，它不会害怕很弱小的威胁。《金融时报》这
篇文章他说，你看共产党的军队它不打自招，特务在攻击海外法轮功的网站，它害怕一
群手无寸铁，打不还手的人群，而这个人群在任何国家，任何社会都不会构成威胁力
量。"

而《法广》的报导说，法学家高全喜认为，盛世应该有一个文明的指标，应以社会的道
德精神状况作为衡量的关键。而宪政学者张博树指出，按建设一个民主社会的观点，盛
世应是指这个国家经济有发展、公民权利有保障、公民生活健康，简单而言，就是国泰
民安。

新唐人记者梁欣、尚燕、柏妮采访报导。

***********************

Chinese GDP true or false

The CCP released a preliminary verification announcementlast week on last
year's GDP, it indicates: 2010 GDP hasincreased by 321.9 billion Yuan
compared to initial counting.This is based on constant price calculation;
the growth rate is10.4%. The Chinese economy seems to be thriving while
theEuropean and American economies are experiencing afinancial slowdown.
However, many experts believe thatGDP and economic growth alone cannot
measure whether acountry is achieving prosperity.

Radio France International published an article "ExpertsPoint out China's
GDP and 1949 cannot be called theGolden Age" citing economist Hu Xingdou's
data, in Kangxiperiod, China's GDP accounted for 32% of that of the
world's.During the opium war period, China's GDP accounted for atleast 20%,
approaching the end of the Qing Dynasty, itdropped to 11%. When the
People's Republic of China wasestablished in 1949, it dropped to only 6%.
It reached thebottom during the Cultural Revolution to a mere 2%.
Thecurrent GDP has only risen to 5~6%, therefore, looking at theGDP, the
CCP has not accomplished much.

Though there are researchers with different opinions to HuXingdou's data,
many agreed with his opinion that the GDPand economy alone cannot measure
whether China is in agolden age. University of South Carolina Aiken School
ofBusiness Professor Xie Tian pointed out that, GDP is aconcept designed by
the US Department of Commerce.While designing it, they warned that the GDP
numbers arenot a healthy measure of a nation's economy, because it leftout
many other important factors.Professor Xie Tian: for example, your defense
spending,natural resource, population, they do not represent a sign
ofpower. They all have weakness and limitation. The GDPnumbers used by the
ruling party (CCP), you can call itfooling the public, or putting on a
show, using it to show ofits economy. Actually, the effect of China's GDP
is alreadyexaggerated.

NTDTV special commentator Jason said, China's GDP growthin the past 30
years is at the cost of other factors deteriorating.

Jason: China's GDP, increased for the past 30 years,however this
development caused the increasing gapbetween the rich and poor. It caused a
worsening of livingconditions, including the environment and people's
moralstandards.

America is facing an employment crisis. On the 12th,President Obama
announced a $447 billion jobs plan, as aneffort to boost the American
economy. The Euro zone is alsofacing a debt crisis. On the 13th, Brazil
Finance MinisterGuido Mantegna said, the BRIC countries will discuss
thepossibility of EU aid. As one of the 4 BRIC countries, Chinahas
expectations from some European and Americanresearchers.

Jason analyzed, inside China, it does not look as optimisticas it appears
to the outside world. Due to policy, the socialdevelopment in China only
benefits the class of people inpower. Rapid GDP growth doesn't reflect the
same growth inthe public's quality of life.

Jason: a typical example, the slight increase in inflationresulted in many
people unable to purchase meat. Now,even vegetables have become too
expansive to eat. Thus,GDP numbers provide an image of a rapid growing
Chinato people who really don't know what's going on in China.But once you
walk into China you will realize it is anunbalanced society.

Jason points out, there are 2 reasons as to why China's GDPis increasing.
Firstly the CCP controls everythingthat's going on in the country; secondly
it keeps a povertyclass by force, to maintain the competitive advantage
ofhaving cheap labor. However, it not only restricts China'seconomic
growth, it also accumulates unfairness in society,as if sitting on top of a
volcano.

The Financial Times writes in an article: to determinewhether a country is
prospering, you only need to look at thecharacteristics of its enemy that
the country is afraid of.

Professor Xie Tian: "a truly powerful country does not need to fearthe
threat from the weak group.The Financial Times said in its article, simply
look at the CCP's army,they deploy spies to attack the Falun Gong websites
abroad.it means they are even afraid of a group of unarmed peaceful
people.This group of people poses no threat to the powers in any country or
society."

The RFI reported, Jurist Gao Quanxi believes, prosperityaccounts for
civilization, it should measures society's moral level andspiritual
conditions. Constitutional scholarZhang Boshu pointed out, to built a
democratic society,a flourishing economy should develop security, civil
rights and health.Put it simple is that the peace and prosperity of the
country.

NTDTV Liang Xin, Shang Yan and Bo Ni. 2011-09-15
09:54:07http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/09/15/a588706.html.-【禁闻】学者分
析中国GDP与盛世标准.html